The Looming Price Hike on Your Toilet Paper and Tissues: Understanding Lumber Tariffs

Don’t be surprised if your next grocery bill includes a steeper price for toilet paper and facial tissues. The reason? Tariffs on lumber and wood products, seemingly distant economic policies, have a direct line to the cost of these everyday essentials. Let’s delve into how these tariffs work and what they might mean for your wallet.

The Unexpected Link: Wood Pulp and Your Household Essentials

Wood Pulp: The Foundation of Cleanliness

The fundamental component in the production of both toilet paper and facial tissues is wood pulp, a fibrous material derived from trees.1 This pulp primarily comes from softwood species such as pine, spruce, and fir, which have longer fibers that contribute to the paper’s strength.1 Hardwood species like eucalyptus and birch, with their shorter fibers, are often used to enhance softness.1 Notably, bamboo is also emerging as a sustainable alternative source for pulp, offering a faster growth rate and requiring less land and water compared to traditional trees.4 The selection of specific wood types influences the final product’s quality, softness, and durability.2

The Journey from Tree to Tissue

The manufacturing of toilet paper is a multi-stage process that begins with pulping.1 In this stage, wood chips are broken down into cellulose fibers. For virgin pulp, wood chips are cooked in large digesters with chemicals in a method known as chemical pulping, which separates lignin, the substance binding wood fibers, leaving behind pure cellulose.1 Mechanical pulping, where heated wood chips are ground to separate fibers, is another method, though chemical methods generally yield stronger paper.7 Recycled toilet paper utilizes old paper products that are soaked and mechanically agitated to separate the fibers, with contaminants like inks and adhesives removed.1

Following pulping, the cellulose fibers undergo bleaching to achieve the desired white color.1 Modern bleaching processes are increasingly using environmentally friendly agents like oxygen, ozone, or hydrogen peroxide instead of chlorine-based chemicals.1 The bleached pulp is then mixed with water to create a slurry, which is diluted to about 1% fiber and 99% water, a crucial step for even paper formation.1 Additives may be incorporated at this stage to enhance specific qualities such as softness, strength, or absorbency.1

The diluted pulp slurry is fed onto a moving mesh screen where water drains away, and the cellulose fibers interlock to form a continuous wet paper sheet.1 This sheet then passes through a series of press rollers to squeeze out excess water, increasing fiber bonding and strength.1 Next, the paper enters a drying section with heated cylinders or air dryers, reducing the moisture content to around 5%, which is essential for the desired softness and texture.1

After drying, the continuous paper sheet is wound onto large reels known as jumbo rolls.1 These massive rolls are then converted into consumer-sized rolls. This converting process involves perforating the paper at regular intervals for easy tearing and slitting the wide sheet into narrower widths.1 The paper is then rewound onto cardboard cores, forming long logs of toilet paper, which are finally cut into individual rolls and packaged.1 This entire process requires significant amounts of energy and water.4

Facial Tissues: A Similar Story

The production of facial tissues shares many similarities with toilet paper manufacturing, also starting with wood pulp as the primary raw material.10 This pulp often consists of a blend of softwood fibers, which provide strength, and hardwood fibers, which contribute to the tissue’s softness.10 Recycled paper is also used by some manufacturers to enhance environmental sustainability.10

The process begins with pulping and mixing, where wood pulp is mixed with water and additives to create a slurry.10 This slurry is refined to achieve the desired softness and consistency.10 Similar to toilet paper production, the pulp is then formed into a thin sheet on a moving wire mesh, where water drains away.10 The wet sheet is pressed through rollers to remove excess water and then dried using heated cylinders or air dryers.10

A crucial step in facial tissue manufacturing is creping, where the dried tissue sheet is scraped from a large heated drum (Yankee dryer) with a metal blade.10 This process creates the characteristic creases and folds that give tissue paper its softness and absorbency.10 The sheet is often embossed to add texture, further enhancing softness and thickness.10 Finally, the continuous sheet of tissue is cut into individual sheets of uniform size, folded (typically in an interleaved pattern for easy dispensing), stacked, and packaged into boxes or soft plastic packs.10 Kraft pulp, known for its high cellulose and low lignin content, is frequently used in facial tissues for its strength, durability, and softness.16

Decoding the Tariffs: How Lumber Costs Trickle Down

Understanding Tariffs

Tariffs are essentially taxes imposed by a government on goods imported from other countries.19 The primary objectives of tariffs can include protecting domestic industries from foreign competition by making imported goods more expensive, generating revenue for the government, or serving as a tool for economic negotiation and pressure.19 While these tariffs are directly paid by the companies importing the goods, the resulting increased costs are often passed down the supply chain and ultimately reflected in higher prices for consumers.19

Current US Tariffs on Lumber and Wood

The United States has a history of imposing tariffs on lumber, particularly softwood lumber imported from Canada, due to long-standing trade disputes.29 As of late 2024 and early 2025, Canadian softwood lumber entering the US was subject to a combined tariff rate of approximately 14.54%, encompassing both anti-dumping and countervailing duties.24 However, this rate has been subject to fluctuations and the potential for significant increases.29

In early 2025, there were announcements regarding broader tariff policies that added further complexity to the situation. President Trump announced a baseline tariff of 10% on imports from nearly all US trading partners as part of a “reciprocal” trade plan.24 Initially, Canada and Mexico received exemptions from these new reciprocal tariffs on lumber, which was considered a notable development given the significant role of Canada in supplying the US with softwood lumber.24 Canada accounts for a substantial portion, estimated between 70% and 85%, of all US softwood lumber imports, representing a significant share of the total supply available in the US.19

Despite these exemptions, the trade landscape remains volatile, with the potential for future changes.26 The US Department of Commerce has been conducting administrative reviews of softwood lumber duties, with indications suggesting that the combined duty rate could rise to 27% or even higher later in 2025.29 Adding to the uncertainty is a Section 232 national security investigation ordered in early 2025 to examine whether lumber imports pose a threat to US security.29 This investigation could potentially lead to additional tariffs or quotas on lumber imports, further impacting costs and supply chains.29 The complexity and the potential for these tariffs to change create instability in the market, which can itself contribute to price fluctuations.29

Direct and Indirect Impacts on Manufacturing Costs

Increased tariffs on lumber and wood products can have both direct and indirect effects on the costs associated with manufacturing everyday items like toilet paper and facial tissues.19 Directly, higher lumber prices increase the expenses for industries that utilize lumber as a primary raw material, most notably the construction sector.19

The connection to the paper industry is slightly more indirect. While toilet paper and facial tissues are made from wood pulp, the cost of wood chips, a byproduct of lumber production, can be influenced by tariffs on lumber.44 If lumber tariffs lead to reduced sawmill activity or higher prices for logs, the availability and cost of wood chips for pulp production could also be affected, potentially increasing the cost of pulp.44

Furthermore, there are indirect impacts through increased costs for other related materials. For example, the packaging for toilet paper and facial tissues, often made from cardboard, relies on wood pulp.29 Tariffs on lumber could contribute to higher prices for cardboard, adding to the overall manufacturing cost.29 Additionally, if tariffs extend to energy products like fuel 28, transportation costs for raw materials and finished goods could also rise, further contributing to the final price consumers pay. The interconnected nature of the wood product supply chain means that tariffs in one area can create a cascade of cost increases across various sectors.29 The availability of wood chips, a key ingredient for pulp, is directly tied to the activity of sawmills, which in turn is sensitive to changes in lumber tariffs.44

Expert Predictions: Brace for Potential Price Increases?

Economic Forecasts

Economic models suggest that the imposition of tariffs generally leads to an increase in consumer prices.21 While specific forecasts for the price impact on toilet paper and facial tissues due to lumber tariffs might be limited, broader analyses indicate a potential rise in overall inflation and a negative impact on household spending.64 For instance, the Yale Budget Lab has estimated that the Trump administration’s tariffs could cost the average American household thousands of dollars annually in higher prices.64 This increase in the cost of goods is often disproportionately felt by lower-income households, as they tend to spend a larger percentage of their income on essential items.21 The implementation of tariffs acts as a regressive tax, potentially straining the budgets of those who can least afford it.21

Industry Expert Opinions

Experts within the paper industry have voiced concerns about the potential for lumber tariffs to drive up the cost of toilet paper and facial tissues.44 Dino Bianco, CEO of Kruger Products, estimated that US producers could face a 6% to 8% increase in costs due to tariffs on Canadian softwood, which would likely be passed on to consumers.55 There are also worries about potential supply disruptions if the tariffs significantly impact the availability of northern bleached softwood kraft pulp (NBSK), a crucial component in the manufacturing of these paper products.44 The memory of toilet paper shortages during the COVID-19 pandemic adds to these concerns, highlighting the fragility of the supply chain and the potential for tariffs to exacerbate such issues.44 Industry observers suggest that reduced output at sawmills due to decreased lumber imports could lead to a shortage of wood chips, further impacting pulp production and potentially causing shortages of finished paper goods.44

Predicted Price Increase for Paper Products Due to Tariffs

SourcePredicted Percentage IncreaseTimeframe
Kruger Products CEO 556-8%Immediate
Industry Experts 44Unspecified, but likelyImmediate
Fastmarkets Analysis 42Broad price volatility expected2025

Note: This table summarizes predictions based on the provided research snippets and may not represent all available forecasts.

To Stockpile or Not to Stockpile? Weighing the Pros and Cons

Potential Benefits of Stockpiling

The anticipation of price increases due to tariffs can prompt consumers to consider stocking up on essential goods like toilet paper and facial tissues.75 The primary motivation is to avoid paying higher prices in the future.75 Billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban even advised consumers to stock up on household essentials before retailers adjust their prices to reflect the tariffs.78 Paper products like toilet paper and facial tissues offer the advantage of having a relatively long shelf life when stored properly, making them suitable for buying in advance.77 The experience of pandemic-induced shortages has also made consumers more aware of potential supply chain disruptions, further fueling the desire to have a запас of essential items on hand.76

Drawbacks and Considerations Before Bulk Buying

Despite the potential savings, there are several drawbacks to consider before stockpiling. Bulk buying can tie up funds that might be needed for other expenses or investments.58 Many households also have limited storage space, making it impractical to hoard large quantities of bulky items like toilet paper.78 It’s also important to remember that the predicted price increases might not be as significant or immediate as feared, and consumers could end up with an excess of goods purchased at a slightly lower price while missing out on other potential uses for their money.23 Financial experts often caution against panic buying and making impulsive decisions based solely on headlines.23 Moreover, if a large number of consumers decide to stockpile, it could inadvertently exacerbate shortages in the short term, potentially impacting those who are unable to buy in bulk.55

Recommendation

Consumers should carefully assess their individual needs, financial situation, and storage capacity before deciding to stock up on toilet paper and facial tissues. A reasonable approach might be to purchase a slightly larger quantity than usual during sales, rather than engaging in excessive hoarding. Staying informed about the actual implementation and impact of the tariffs will be crucial in making informed purchasing decisions.

Stay Informed: Further Reading on Tariffs and Costs

  • Trump’s tariff push is a race against time, and potential voter reaction (AP News – 73)
  • NAHB pleased with lumber exemption in reciprocal tariffs, but concerned about other building materials (NAHB – 24)
  • Tariffs on lumber, appliances set stage for higher costs on new homes and remodeling projects (PBS NewsHour – 46)
  • How Trump’s tariffs will impact lumber prices, housing market (Fox 26 Houston – 25)
  • Policy-driven supply shock: North American lumber market braces for Trump Tariffs 2.0 (Fastmarkets – 42)
  • Housing market gets warning despite lumber win in Trump tariffs (Newsweek – 117)
  • Tariffs on lumber and appliances set stage for higher costs on new homes and remodeling projects | AP News (AP News – 27)
  • Construction materials tariffs could have immediate impact on costs (Construction Dive – 61)
  • Will Trump Tariffs Harm Home Affordability? (CoreLogic – 62)
  • Trump tariffs could make everyday goods more expensive (Fox 10 Phoenix – 28)
  • Lumber and building materials industry faces price volatility amid tariff uncertainty (NRLA – 118)
  • US lumber market shakeup: New trade investigation and tariffs impact global softwood imports (Farmonaut – 31)
  • Tariffs impact on the pulp and paper industry (Reddit – 51)
  • Canadian pulp emerges unscathed in US trade war (Fastmarkets – 119)
  • Swedish forest industry calls U.S. tariffs regrettable as pulp and paper exports face 10 percent duty (Nip Impressions – 120)

Conclusion

The tariffs on lumber and wood products introduce uncertainty into the cost of everyday essentials like toilet paper and facial tissues. While the exact impact remains to be seen, understanding the connection between wood pulp and these products, the nature of the tariffs, and expert predictions can help consumers make informed decisions about their purchasing habits. Staying informed about these economic shifts will be key in navigating potential price fluctuations.

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